Skip to content
fs-kite-dashboard

Simulations

What it does

Simulations runs Monte Carlo models on your portfolio to show a range of plausible future outcomes — not a single number, but a distribution. You see best-case, worst-case, and the most likely band, given your current holdings and chosen assumptions.

When to use it

  • You’re trying to size a position and want to see how it changes the risk profile.
  • You’re answering “can my portfolio fund X by Y?” for a financial goal.
  • You want to stress-test the rebalance plan from Restructuring before acting.
  • You want a feel for drawdowns you might experience, not just expected returns.

How to use it

  1. Open Simulations from the sidebar.
  2. Pick the portfolio to simulate (your current portfolio, a saved restructuring plan, or a custom allocation).
  3. Set parameters — time horizon, expected return assumptions, volatility, contributions/withdrawals if relevant.
  4. Click Run simulation.
  5. The output shows:
    • The distribution of ending values — typically a fan chart with percentile bands.
    • Worst / median / best outcomes.
    • Probability of meeting a target if you set one.

Tips & gotchas

  • Garbage in, garbage out. The output is only as honest as the assumptions. Don’t pick optimistic returns just to feel better.
  • Distributions are not predictions. A 90th-percentile path is a possibility, not a plan.
  • Run multiple scenarios. Vary return and volatility assumptions to see how sensitive the result is.
  • Long horizons amplify uncertainty. Don’t be surprised by wide bands at 20+ years.
  • Restructuring — generate the allocation, then test it here.
  • Holdings — the portfolio being simulated.
  • Glossary — Monte Carlo, drawdown, percentile.